sgusers4的部落格

Source: The Monitor, McAllen, TexasNov.mini storage 14--MCALLEN -- Because "we're not having enough babies," the world will face "big societal consequences" in the future, with "all these old people and not enough resources to support them."That's according to Jonathan Last -- senior writer for conservative commentator Bill Kristol's The Weekly Standard -- who visited the McAllen Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday for the second installment of The Monitor and the Chamber's Newsmaker Breakfast Series. Sponsored by IBC Bank, the series began last month with nationally syndicated columnist Ruben Navarrette Jr., who talked Latino politics with Monitor Editor Carlos Sanchez.Wednesday, it was Last's turn for a Q&A with Sanchez. Dubbed "the resident geek" -- a moniker he appreciates -- at The Weekly Standard's office in Washington, Last discussed internationally dropping fertility rates, which are the subject of his latest book, What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster."Demography is a very powerful lens for understanding the world around us," Last explained. Summarizing the book's starting point, he described how its "thesis is we're not having enough babies." He described how the high majority of the global populace, 97 percent, resides in a nation that finds its fertility rate "dropping precipitously.""This is a real phenomenon," he said. "It's happening just about everywhere at the same time."With essentially the entire world community "heading in the same direction voluntarily," Last emphasized "the big societal consequences that we have to grapple with." These realities will include "fewer workers, more old people" and generally "big shifts in how we live our life," he said. Another consequence will be "a smaller pool of people to create innovations," given that such creators, inventors and pioneers typically come from younger segments of the poself storageulation.The author listed a few trends that have brought about dropping fertility rates. For American families, the economic price -- $1.1 million -- to nurture, raise and educate a child is frequently a mitigating factor. Another reason, Last explained, is "modernity itself." For example, "fertility declines with education rate."Detailing how the near future will include "all these old people and not enough resources to support them," Last nevertheless was careful to not attempt to prognosticate too specifically too far into the future. "Here's my concern: I am not concerned about the long term," he said, noting that such predictions are often not reliable. "The concern is the medium run," Last said. He expressed worry for revered modern institutions such as democracy and the protection of human rights that have thrived in contemporary society up to now, wondering whether they can secure and maintain durability and longevity in a world where "consumption patterns change" amid any "destabilizing effect" caused by the falling infertility rates across the globe.The question is, Last asked, "can (those institutions) survive the transition?"The author's musings were exactly of the sort that The Monitor and the Chamber of Commerce had hoped to foster when they conceived the Newsmaker Breakfast Series, Sanchez said."Today's event is precisely why The Monitor partnered with the McAllen Chamber: to provide useful, thought-provoking information to the community," Sanchez said. "Jonathan Last is not a well-known name," continued Sanchez, "but his well-researched book gave us all an opportunity to learn about some potentially disturbing demographic trends that would have direct bearing on the Valley."dsantella@themonitor.comCopyright: ___ (c)2013 The Monitor (McAllen, Texas) Visit The Monitor (McAllen, Texas) at .themonitor.com Distributed by MCT Information Services迷你倉